What strike to buy?

I just talked to a British trader about Sirius radio. We discussed what option strategy to pursue if he believes the stock price will rise. Unfortunately, Sirius provided problems as an example because the strike prices were too close together and too small to truly show on my graph (premiums of a penny). So, I have picked Home Depot (HD) with the following information:


We believe the price will rise to $50 (so this is a Bullish spread). The question is: which option to buy?

As the strike price increases, the probability of the stock price reaching that price goes down. As such, we see the "time value" of the following options as the following:
 (there is rounding, which is why these numbers differ slightly)
Note there is no intrinsic value because these are out of the money calls.

The green line (strategy #1) is the $35 call, the blue line (strategy #2) is the $40 call and the $45 call is the red line (strategy $3)

Note that as each strategy becomes less risky, its upside reward lessens. Buying the $45 call is cheaper than buying the $35 call, but only earns $5 if the stock goes to $50. On the contrary, if you are wrong and the stock does not move, the $45 call has a max risk of $.05, where the $35 call risks $2.25
The $50 call is On the Money, so buying a $50 call would mean you would lose your $.03 ($3 total).

Well, what about buying an In the Money Call?

Here, we see an In the Money, At the Money, and Out of the Money compared: (notice that strategy #1 - the green line, is now an ITM call)

The ITM call has the best reward payoff, but the most downside risk. If you are wrong, and the option price falls to $25, the entire $10.5 you paid will now be lost. 

There are two more strategies that can not be over looked: a long position and selling a put.

Here is the following information for an At the Money Call and Put:

Selling a put allows you to gain if the stock moves, but you will lose the most from a drop in the price. The red line represents a traditional long strategy. The green line is our ATM call, though this could be exchanged with an OTM or ITM call depending on an investor's goals (as we discussed above)